Cryptocurrency Market Spillovers to Stock Indexes: A Co-Integration Analysis in the Context of Global and Asian Markets

Abstract

The study investigates the co-movement relationships between cryptocurrencies and South Asian stock markets, focusing on five leading cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance Coin, and Ripple, and five South Asian stock indices: BSE, PSX 100, DSE 30, NEPSE, and Sri Lanka's All Share Index, and also used five major global indices for the accuracy of analysis. The study aims to understand their integration and causal dynamics. The analysis uses 357 weekly observations of historical prices from November 6, 2017, to September 2, 2024, applying econometric tools such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests, Johansen's Cointegration Test, Vector Auto-Regression, Vector Error Correction Model, and Granger causality to examine statistical properties, integration, and causality among the variables. Results show significant cointegration and causality between cryptocurrencies and South Asian stock indices, with cryptocurrency prices exhibiting higher volatility and faster adjustments than stock indices. These findings provide actionable insights for investors, policy-makers, and researchers regarding regulation and cross-market investment strategies. This study uniquely explores the interplay between emerging digital assets and traditional finance in a South Asian context, offering novel evidence on volatility dynamics and causal relationships that inform coupled regulatory frameworks and cross-market investment planning.