Pathways to Eradicating Terrorism in Post-2021 AFPAK: Power Vacuums, Militant Adaptationand Security Governance Reform

Abstract

The post-2021 withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan profoundly altered the security landscape in the Afghanistan-Pakistan (AFPAK) region. This study examined the pathways to eradicating terrorism in this context, focusing on the interplay between power vacuums, militant adaptation, and governance reforms. A quantitative research design was employed to analyseterrorism incidents, fatalities, and governance indicators from 2015 to 2024. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and fixed-effects panel regression were used to assess the impact of political stability, government effectiveness, and rule of law on terrorism intensity. The findings revealed a significant increase in terrorism incidents and fatalities after 2021, indicating that the withdrawal created conditions conducive to militant resurgence. Governance variables were negatively correlated with terrorism measures, demonstrating that higher political stability and institutional effectiveness reduced both the frequency and lethality of attacks. Regression results confirmed that weaknesses in governance structures and the rule of law significantly contributed to the escalation of terrorist activity. The study concluded that military interventions alone were insufficient for sustainable counterterrorism outcomes. Effective governance, institutional strengthening, cross-border cooperation, and community-focused initiatives were identified as essential components of a comprehensive strategy to mitigate terrorism. These insights offer policymakers evidence-based guidance for designing integrated interventions that address both immediate threats and underlying structural vulnerabilities.