The Paradox of Trust: How Belief in CPEC’s Mega-Dams Reshapes Pakistan Water Crisis Perceptions

Abstract

Amidst Pakistan’s severe water crisis, public trust in China-Pakistan hydro-projects presents a governance paradox. Using nationwide survey data and mediation analysis, this study finds that trust in CPEC is the strongest predictor of heightened catastrophic water risk perception, acting as a psychological amplifier rather than a palliative. While trust buffers geopolitical anxieties, it fails to address deep-seated structural and gendered hydraulic inequalities. The results advocate for a hybrid water governance model that leverages CPEC’s political capital for efficiency reforms while mandating equity-focused interventions to address distributive justice, a critical pathway for sustainable water resource management in a transboundary crisis context.