Non-Oil Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Does Methodology Matter?

Abstract

In an attempt to test the validity of Export-Led Hypothesis, this study examines the linkage between economic growth and non-oil export using time series data for Nigeria over a period of 1970-2010. Employing both Simultaneous Equation Model (SEM) and a single equation model, results of SEM refute the hypothesis while that of the single equation validates the hypothesis. Specifically, the growth equation in the SEM shows that non oil export and agricultural performance are negatively associated with growth, though in other equations, this was not the case. It was also found that that the industrial sector performance and population growth are good determinant of economic growth. An interesting finding is the revelation that the adoption of Structural Adjustment Program was a bad omen for the agricultural sector. Among the policy recommendations is the need for increase in government participation and patronage as well as creating investment friendly environment for investors in the sector.