Global and Regional Patterns of Demographic Convergence: Analysis of Fertility, Population Growth and Age Structure

Abstract

This research delves into the global and regional aspects of demographic convergence. Employing a holistic approach, multiple demographic factors - including fertility rate, population growth rate, age dependency ratio, and the ratio of working age to total population, are analysed both globally and regionally for the period of 1960-2020. Convergence is evaluated using established approaches, encompassing absolute and conditional beta and sigma convergence. The results of absolute beta values on a global level revealed robust convergence in population growth, with Europe exhibiting the highest levels and Asia the lowest. The fertility rate displayed moderate convergence, with Europe leading and Africa showing divergence. The convergence in the working-age population was found to be weak. The convergence in dependency ratio was insignificant worldwide, but exhibited significance in Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The findings indicate evidence for conditional convergence across all geographic regions, but the rate of conditional convergence is higher for population growth and fertility. Sigma convergence is primarily manifested in population growth rates, but some coefficients are also pointing towards divergence. Based on the results of conditional beta convergence, the study recommends strengthening human capital across developing countries to help accelerate the process of demographic convergence.