Impact of Droughts on Agriculture Using SPI: A Case Study of Potohar Region, Punjab (Pakistan)

Abstract

Drought is a complex phenomenon that can significantly impact agricultural production. This study aimed to assess the impact of drought on agriculture in the Potohar region of Pakistan using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for 30 years from 1986 to 2015. Monthly precipitation data were obtained from meteorological stations in Rawalpindi and Jhelum districts to calculate SPI values and analyse drought severity. The impact of SPI on the production of five major crops, rice, maize, bajra, jowar, and barley was investigated. The results showed that drought conditions, indicated by negative SPI values, often led to decreased crop production in both districts. In Rawalpindi, severe drought years such as 1988, 1990, 2002, and 2008 coincided with reduced yields of maize, bajra, and jowar. Similarly, in Jhelum, drought years such as 1986, 1992, 2006, and 2012 were associated with declines in rice and maize production. The Rawalpindi and Jhelum districts exhibit distinct seasonal precipitation patterns, underscoring the region's strong dependence on monsoon rainfall. July and August consistently show high SPI values, often exceeding 2.0, indicating intense wet spells and heavy monsoonal rain. A minor inconsistency was noted in Jehlum where 1999 was mentioned alongside 2014. The findings suggest that drought is a major limiting factor for agricultural productivity in the Potohar region. Climate change is expected to make droughts more severe and frequent, seriously jeopardising food security and rural livelihoods. Policymakers and stakeholders should prioritise investments in drought resistant crop varieties, water-conservation techniques, and farmer capacity building to enhance the agricultural sector's resilience to drought stress.