The Influence of Domestic Socio-Economic Development on Migration Decisions in Low and Middle-Income Countries: A Migration Capabilities Perspective

Abstract

People, their families, and communities weigh the costs and benefits of migration to decide whether to move or stay; however, these decisions are complex and influenced by multiple factors. Within the Aspirations-Capabilities (A-C) migration framework, individuals' capabilities are fundamental in shaping migration decisions, including the capability to choose to stay in their home country. Using the two-step System GMM model for net migration data, this paper examines the influence of domestic socioeconomic development on individuals' migration decisions and capability to stay. The positive and statistically significant coefficients for HDI (9.144–13.79) and the logarithm of GDP per capita (0.994–1.785) on net migration suggest that improved socioeconomic conditions in origin countries influence migration decisions and encourage individuals to stay, contributing to balance migration flows. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that individuals' capability to stay can be effectively assessed using the net migration rate, with positive coefficients indicating an improvement in their ability and willingness to remain in their home country. In this context, the countries of migrant origin should foster a conducive domestic environment to shift individuals' 'aspirations and capabilities to migrate' toward ‘aspirations and capabilities to stay at home' as a sustainable approach to migration management. This shift can transform migration from a forced necessity into a voluntary choice, in alignment with the objectives of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals and the 2018 Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM).